Johan Woo Kvandal
Partner
Oslo
by Johan Woo Kvandal
Published:
Recent developments, from Venezuela to Greenland, may point to more than isolated geopolitical events. They illustrate how natural resources, geography and infrastructure are again becoming strategic variables, with direct consequences for market access, investment risk, and long-term value creation.
Against this backdrop, security can no longer be treated as a downstream compliance issue. In 2026, it increasingly influences procurement outcomes, partnership structures, and capital allocation across Europe.
This reflects a structural shift rather than a temporary reaction to global politics. Technology is now embedded in functions that are essential to societal continuity: supply chains, energy systems, digital infrastructure, and decision support. As a result, the distinction between civilian technology and security-relevant capability is becoming less operationally useful.
In practice, the key question is rarely how a product is categorized. What matters is whether it becomes critical at scale, and whether customers, partners and investors can rely on it under operational, commercial, or geopolitical pressure.
Many technologies that were previously assessed primarily on performance, speed and cost are now evaluated against additional criteria. AI-based systems influence logistics and resource allocation. Digital platforms support healthcare, transport, and public services. Data-driven solutions increasingly operate in environments where disruption affects more than a single customer or contract.
In these settings, security is fundamentally about predictability. Governance, data access, ownership structures, and supply dependencies move from abstract risk assessments to concrete contractual and operational considerations. This is why security-related questions now arise far beyond defense and traditionally regulated sectors.
Europe’s growing focus on supply resilience illustrates this development. Procurement practices increasingly emphasize origin, controllability, and long-term delivery capability, not only price and availability. While most visible in defense and critical infrastructure, this logic is spreading into technology markets that sit close to essential services.
For companies, this does not mean uniform requirements across all products. It does mean that expectations tend to increase as technologies scale and become more deeply embedded. Those that anticipate this shift are typically better positioned than those that encounter it later through customer demands, regulatory scrutiny, or transaction processes.
Capital markets are adjusting accordingly. Across venture capital, private equity and strategic investment, security-related considerations increasingly influence assessments of scalability, operational risk and exit optionality.
What has changed is not the existence of these issues, but when they arise. Questions that could previously be deferred now surface at decisive moments, during scaling, in partnerships and in transactions. In this context, security of supply is increasingly determined by corporate preparedness: the ability to retain control, governance, and decision-making capacity as conditions change. Companies that address this early tend to move faster, with less friction and greater deal certainty.
Companies that navigate this landscape effectively prioritize clarity over maximal restriction. They understand where their technology becomes critical at scale and design accordingly, with transparency around data flows, dependencies, and control. Governance and ownership structures are deliberate rather than incidental, and control over key intellectual property is retained.
Equally important, these companies may engage constructively with customers, investors, and public authorities when security-related questions arise. In practice, this reduces friction at the precise points where growth meets legal, regulatory, and organizational complexity, and where momentum is most often lost.
For European companies and investors, the relevant question is no longer whether security matters, but how it is priced. Understood as trust, resilience and predictability, security is increasingly moving from a regulatory requirement to a competitive differentiator.
Europe is unlikely to compete globally on cost or speed alone. Its comparative advantage lies in institutional stability, legal certainty, and the capacity to integrate technology into complex societal systems over time. In this context, security increasingly shapes how innovation, performance and price are assessed in practice.
As technology becomes embedded in essential societal functions, security is no longer primarily about risk mitigation. It is becoming a condition for technology to function as trusted infrastructure, and a strategic factor at the intersection of technology, capital, and societal resilience.
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